A new collaborative study, by Moshe (Koko) Armon from the Institute of Earth Sciences at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Yuval Shmilovitz from the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences at the University of Colorado Boulder, and Elad Dente from the School of Environmental Sciences at the University of Haifa, reveals that the devastating 2023 flood in Derna, Libya, was not merely the result of extreme rainfall but was drastically intensified by a major design shortcoming and its resulting collapse of two embankment dams. Through advanced hydrological modeling and satellite data analysis, the researchers showed in the paper published in Science Advances, that while Storm Daniel brought heavy rainfall, the catastrophe stemmed from dam failures and flawed risk assessment and communication—amplifying the destruction nearly twentyfold. The findings highlight the urgent need for improved flood mitigation and risk communication strategies, especially in dryland regions where high uncertainty in risk analysis, coupled with vulnerable infrastructure, pose an ever-growing threat.

A report about the study was recently published in Ynet.