Predictability of Extreme Weather (PredEx)

Principal Investigator

אסף הוכמן

Dr. Assaf Hochman

assaf.hochman@mail.huji.ac.il

Room 213 South

Researcher Page 

Researcher and Lab Manager

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Dr. Roy Yaniv

roy.yaniv@mail.huji.ac.il 

Room 308 North

Dr. Assaf Hochman

 

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The PredEx lab focuses on improving the ability to predict extreme weather events and their impacts across time and spatial scales, from regional to global and beyond.

Our work addresses the issue of weather and climate predictability from different perspectives, including physical observations, computer modeling, and mathematical/statistical theory.

Research Students

PhD Students 

Victor Murphy 
My PhD research focuses on enhancing intrinsic predictability in numerical weather prediction by using dynamical system metrics within machine learning and artificial intelligence. The goal is to integrate these metrics into predictive models, thus extending the forecast horizon for long-term weather predictions. I am also working on a research project in the broader department called Systems Thinking in Earth and Environmental Sciences Teaching, which Professor Carynelisa Haspel is coordinating.
Email: victor.murphy@mail.huji.ac.il

Tair Plotnik

André Klif
Analyze sub-seasonal forecast models and/or climate models to better predict the
probability of occurrence of heat waves in the Middle East.
Email: andre.klif@mail.huji.ac.il

Efraim Bril
Paleo-climate: climate change in the Levant during the last interglacial period
LinkedIn profile : Efi Bril
Email: efraim.bril@mail.huji.ac.il

MSc Students 

Margarita Mazor
Intricate relationship between weather types and the migration patterns of white storks
over the Eastern Mediterranean.
Email: Margarita.Mazor@mail.huji.ac.il 

Yuval Levin
Impact of anthropogenic emissions on the predicted precipitation regime for the Middle East
in the 21st century.
Email: yuval.levin@mail.huji.ac.il

 

Contact Us

assaf.hochman@mail.huji.ac.il |  Room 213 South

Publications

 

Hochman, A., Plotnik, T., Marra, F., Shehter, E. R., Raveh-Rubin, S., & Magaritz-Ronen, L. (2023). The sources of extreme precipitation predictability; the case of the ‘Wet’Red Sea Trough. Weather and climate extremes40, 100564.

Vakrat, E., & Hochman, A. (2023). Dynamical systems insights on cyclonic compound “wet” and “windy” extremes in the Eastern Mediterranean. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society149(757), 3593-3606.

Hochman, A., Shachar, N., & Gildor, H. (2024). Unraveling sub-seasonal precipitation variability in the Middle East via Indian Ocean sea surface temperature. Scientific Reports14(1), 2919.

Yaniv, R., Yair, Y., & Hochman, A. (2025). Understanding heavy precipitation events in southern Israel through atmospheric electric field observations. Atmospheric Research313, 107757.

Hochman, A., & Gildor, H. (2025). Synergistic effects of El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole on Middle Eastern subseasonal precipitation variability and predictability. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society151(766), e4903.

Bril, E., Torfstein, A., Yaniv, R., & Hochman, A. (2025). Hydroclimatic Variability and Weather-Type Characteristics in the Levant During the Last Interglacial. Authorea Preprints.